ML Analysis — ASCENSION SETON BASTROP
CCN 670143 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 12.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.4%, 24.2%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2378957.286 | +0.1116 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 1.946 | -0.0564 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2088120.429 | -0.0531 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.066 | +0.0389 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
52.3%
Distress Risk
$3.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
31.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P77. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.134 | +0.363 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.118 | -0.112 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2378957.286 | -0.047 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 7.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.436 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.1M
Current margin: 12.2%
Projected margin: 31.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 23
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.118 | 0.775 | 65.7% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.561 | 0.642 | 8.1% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.134 | 0.234 | 10.0% | $660K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.6% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P2 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |