ML Analysis — BAYLOR SCOTT & WHITE - MARBLE FALLS
CCN 670108 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.2%, 26.4%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 3446708.674 | -0.2205 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2936353.196 | +0.1894 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1775103.332 | +0.0299 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.141 | +0.0173 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 47%Turnaround possible (47%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.8%
Distress Risk
$6.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-12.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P60. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 2936353.196 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.605 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.217 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.022 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 46.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.327 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.7M
Current margin: -17.4%
Projected margin: -12.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 283
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.217 | 0.508 | 29.1% | $4.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.652 | 0.741 | 9.0% | $1.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.605 | 0.719 | 11.5% | $758K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P58 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |