ML Analysis — HERITAGE PARK SURGICAL HOSPITAL
CCN 670076 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 19.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-18.5%, 38.1%]. P82 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4379139.917 | +0.3908 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3539765.917 | -0.2319 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.485 | -0.0439 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 12.000 | +0.0213 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
28.9%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.244 | +0.261 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.378 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4379139.917 | -0.165 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.243 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 12.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.1M
Current margin: 19.2%
Projected margin: 28.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 97
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.243 | 0.607 | 36.4% | $2.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.622 | 0.732 | 11.0% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.244 | 0.428 | 18.4% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |