ML Analysis — METHODIST HOSPITAL FOR SURGERY
CCN 670073 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health21/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
20.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 22.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-7.6%, 49.0%]. P93 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 5574882.125 | +0.5577 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4302957.844 | -0.3259 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.444 | -0.0697 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2241885.389 | +0.0454 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
23.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.402 | +0.114 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.174 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 5574882.125 | -0.236 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.537 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 32.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: 22.8%
Projected margin: 23.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 273
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.402 | 0.651 | 24.9% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |