ML Analysis — THE HOSPITAL AT WESTLAKE MEDICAL CTR
CCN 670006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
32
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.5%, 21.1%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.189 | -0.0201 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 23.000 | +0.0196 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.186 | -0.0193 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
7.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.186 | +0.315 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.268 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.189 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1637541.522 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: -3.3%
Projected margin: 7.0%
Grade: B
Comps: 235
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.186 | 0.539 | 35.4% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.189 | 0.539 | 34.9% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |