ML Analysis — ST. JOHNS HOSPITAL
CCN 530015 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.2%, 22.4%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3538313.750 | +0.2735 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3813237.521 | -0.2656 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.286 | -0.0244 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.568 | +0.0224 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.7%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P58. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.386 | +0.129 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3538313.750 | -0.116 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.568 | +0.089 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.033 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.463 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: -7.8%
Projected margin: -6.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.568 | 0.644 | 7.6% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.386 | 0.611 | 22.5% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |