ML Analysis — WYOMING MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 530012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.8%, 19.8%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1008559.261 | -0.0797 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1035752.252 | +0.0766 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.420 | +0.0243 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 449052.789 | -0.0141 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.5%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P52. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.445 | +0.074 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.042 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1008559.261 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.479 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.343 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 226.000 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: -2.7%
Projected margin: 0.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 1808
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.478 | 0.756 | 27.8% | $4.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.445 | 0.767 | 32.2% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.343 | 0.346 | 0.3% | $81K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |