ML Analysis — WAUKESHA COUNTY MENTAL HEALTH CNTR
CCN 524026 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.0%, 15.6%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 81313.870 | -0.2091 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 344787.956 | +0.1617 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.324 | -0.0353 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.135 | -0.0288 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
48.6%
Distress Risk
$198K
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-39.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P86. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 81313.870 | +0.088 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.010 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.474 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 23.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.333 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $198K
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -39.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 85
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.474 | 0.498 | 2.4% | $156K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.333 | 0.527 | 19.4% | $42K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 37.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P81 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.9% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |