ML Analysis — ASCENSION SACRED HEART REHABILITATIO
CCN 523025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.8%, 20.8%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 408712.429 | -0.1634 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 381126.619 | +0.1572 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 203476.403 | -0.0222 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.6%
Distress Risk
$161K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
8.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P26. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 408712.429 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.498 | +0.025 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.241 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.077 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.374 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $161K
Current margin: 6.8%
Projected margin: 8.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 81
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.374 | 0.534 | 16.0% | $161K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P50 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |