ML Analysis — SSH -MADISON
CCN 522008 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.4%, 24.2%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 455741.707 | -0.1568 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 434197.138 | +0.1507 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.108 | +0.0267 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 238548.600 | -0.0210 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.4%
Distress Risk
$3.6M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
18.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P11. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.201 | -0.075 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 455741.707 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.056 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.404 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.523 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.6M
Current margin: 4.7%
Projected margin: 18.3%
Grade: B
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.540 | 0.695 | 15.5% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.523 | 0.628 | 10.5% | $692K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.201 | 0.383 | 18.2% | $564K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P44 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |