ML Analysis — ASPIRUS MERRILL HOSPITAL
CCN 521339 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 13.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.1%, 30.5%]. P68 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2228118.333 | +0.0906 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.485 | -0.0439 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1937124.167 | -0.0345 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 12.000 | +0.0213 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.3%
Distress Risk
$1.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
17.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P7. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2228118.333 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.449 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 12.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.399 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.514 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.3M
Current margin: 13.1%
Projected margin: 17.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.596 | 0.662 | 6.6% | $993K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.449 | 0.535 | 8.6% | $269K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P53 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |