ML Analysis — WHEATON FRANCISCAN HEALTHCARE - ALL
CCN 520096 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -17.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.6%, 21.0%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 938674.246 | -0.0894 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1104252.368 | +0.0681 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.652 | +0.0297 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 285.000 | -0.0213 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.0%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-16.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P40. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.397 | +0.119 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 938674.246 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.303 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.181 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 285.000 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.077 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -17.6%
Projected margin: -16.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.303 | 0.382 | 7.8% | $2.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.397 | 0.671 | 27.4% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.742 | 0.745 | 0.3% | $50K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |