ML Analysis — OCONOMOWOC MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 520062 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.6%, 29.0%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1985296.524 | +0.0567 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1945260.794 | -0.0355 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 63.000 | +0.0134 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.273 | -0.0108 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.5%
Distress Risk
$2.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P1. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.018 | -0.071 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.273 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.483 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1985296.524 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 63.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.300 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.9M
Current margin: 2.0%
Projected margin: 4.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.273 | 0.385 | 11.3% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.483 | 0.628 | 14.5% | $960K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.682 | 0.701 | 2.0% | $295K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |