ML Analysis — ST. NICHOLAS HOSPITAL
CCN 520044 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.7%, 23.9%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2338095.340 | -0.0839 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2164439.679 | +0.0817 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 53.000 | +0.0149 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.316 | -0.0119 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.5%
Distress Risk
$2.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-5.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P39. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.316 | +0.194 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.018 | -0.070 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2164439.679 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.323 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 53.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.286 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.9M
Current margin: -8.0%
Projected margin: -5.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 45
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.316 | 0.635 | 31.9% | $2.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.323 | 0.384 | 6.1% | $824K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P47 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |