ML Analysis — ASPIRUS RHINELANDER HOSPITAL
CCN 520019 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Pass — risk/return profile does not justify PE capital deployment at market multiples.
29
/ 100 (F)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-100.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-128.3%, -71.7%]. P0 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | -8654460.381 | -1.4285 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 5342758.595 | -0.4540 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | -5627375.152 | -0.2156 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.000 | -0.0413 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
57.0%
Distress Risk
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | -8654460.381 | +0.604 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.000 | -0.164 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.650 | -0.116 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.078 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.380 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
D
RCM Grade
Weak RCM profile — high risk but potentially high reward if turnaround thesis is credible.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 80.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Below average — clean claim rate suggests room for improveme |
| Net Collection Rate | 90.0% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Below average — net collection rate suggests room for improv |