ML Analysis — ASPIRUS STEVENS POINT HOSPITAL
CCN 520002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
8.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 28.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-20.3%, 36.3%]. P79 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2456364.293 | +0.1224 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.284 | -0.0238 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1747593.134 | -0.0111 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 82.000 | +0.0104 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.6%
Distress Risk
$2.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
29.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P58. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.396 | +0.120 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2456364.293 | -0.052 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.423 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.069 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.260 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 82.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.0M
Current margin: 28.8%
Projected margin: 29.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.396 | 0.607 | 21.1% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.671 | 0.714 | 4.3% | $644K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |