ML Analysis — BECKLEY ARH
CCN 510062 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -37.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.4%, 24.2%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2088819.333 | -0.0532 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.003 | +0.0316 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Occupancy | 0.848 | +0.0183 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.150 | +0.0147 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1285196.499 | +0.0137 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
39.7%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-33.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P89. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WV distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.848 | -0.299 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.255 | -0.051 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.049 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 72.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.360 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1516000.000 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: -37.8%
Projected margin: -33.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 19
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.255 | 0.488 | 23.3% | $3.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.591 | 0.696 | 10.5% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |