ML Analysis — PLEASANT VALLEY HOSPITAL
CCN 510012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -48.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.7%, 17.9%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 813657.633 | -0.1069 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1204698.694 | +0.0557 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.003 | +0.0316 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 272644.685 | -0.0199 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.144 | +0.0165 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.4%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-36.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P49. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WV distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.335 | +0.176 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.031 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 813657.633 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.269 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.434 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 49.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: -48.1%
Projected margin: -36.5%
Grade: B
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.335 | 0.644 | 30.9% | $2.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.269 | 0.561 | 29.1% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.535 | 0.615 | 8.0% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |