ML Analysis — GREENBRIER VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 510002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.0%, 25.6%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 837159.586 | +0.1010 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 875036.207 | -0.0983 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.003 | +0.0316 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 58.000 | +0.0142 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 511905.418 | -0.0120 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.5%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
13.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P4. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WV distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.585 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 875036.207 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.293 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.068 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.360 | +0.006 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: 4.3%
Projected margin: 13.6%
Grade: C
Comps: 20
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.571 | 0.691 | 12.0% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.585 | 0.856 | 27.1% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.293 | 0.480 | 18.7% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |