ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL FIRST HILL
CCN 502002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
32
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-10.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.9%, 17.7%]. P36 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 521300.963 | -0.1477 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 542338.062 | +0.1373 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 350878.394 | -0.0173 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.227 | -0.0159 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 32%Turnaround possible (32%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-0.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.673 | -0.137 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.176 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.227 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 521300.963 | +0.062 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 80.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: -4.0%
Projected margin: -0.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 29
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.673 | 0.816 | 14.3% | $942K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.227 | 0.367 | 14.0% | $683K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |