ML Analysis — QUINCY VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 501320 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility1/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.9%, 13.7%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1071531.700 | +0.0721 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1150889.800 | -0.0598 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.654 | +0.0320 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$6.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
61.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.025 | +0.464 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.739 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.654 | +0.127 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1150889.800 | +0.025 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.3M
Current margin: 6.9%
Projected margin: 61.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.261 | 0.494 | 23.3% | $3.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.025 | 0.451 | 42.6% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |