ML Analysis — CASCADE VALLEY HOSPITAL
CCN 500060 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 21.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.4%, 23.2%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1298414.229 | +0.0442 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 48.000 | +0.0157 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.871 | -0.0117 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1650470.417 | +0.0099 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.0%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
26.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P23. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.016 | -0.073 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.479 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.291 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.265 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1650470.417 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: 21.3%
Projected margin: 26.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.291 | 0.594 | 30.3% | $2.8M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.479 | 0.673 | 19.4% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |