ML Analysis — PROV ST MARY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 500002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.7%, 21.9%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2487186.853 | -0.1022 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2226146.853 | +0.0903 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1441361.874 | +0.0189 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.153 | +0.0140 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.4%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P58. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.647 | -0.114 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.012 | -0.077 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2226146.853 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.300 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.479 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 95.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: -11.7%
Projected margin: -8.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 30
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.509 | 0.746 | 23.7% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.300 | 0.363 | 6.3% | $1.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.647 | 0.836 | 18.8% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P39 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |