ML Analysis — UVA ENCOMPASS HEALTH REHABILITATION
CCN 493029 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
5.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-23.3%, 33.3%]. P74 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 483031.180 | -0.1530 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 431681.300 | +0.1510 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.672 | +0.0341 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.557 | +0.0276 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.8%
Distress Risk
$2.9M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
22.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P85. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.828 | -0.281 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.673 | +0.135 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.087 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 483031.180 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.557 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.9M
Current margin: 10.6%
Projected margin: 22.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 50
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.442 | 0.632 | 19.0% | $2.9M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |