ML Analysis — LEE COUNTY COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 491309 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside6/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 14.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.1%, 22.5%]. P47 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 799385.417 | +0.1057 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 939668.417 | -0.0893 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.485 | -0.0439 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 92465.088 | -0.0259 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$2.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
40.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.098 | +0.396 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.267 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.284 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 939668.417 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 12.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.9M
Current margin: 14.9%
Projected margin: 40.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 866
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.098 | 0.457 | 35.8% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.284 | 0.682 | 39.8% | $526K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |