ML Analysis — CARILION STONEWALL JACKSON HOSPITAL
CCN 491304 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
4.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.1%, 32.5%]. P72 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2406036.320 | +0.1154 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2425954.440 | -0.0947 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 57%Turnaround possible (57%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.2%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
6.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P39. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.007 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2406036.320 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.522 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.302 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.506 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: -0.8%
Projected margin: 6.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 26
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.471 | 0.587 | 11.6% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.506 | 0.720 | 21.4% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.302 | 0.470 | 16.7% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |