ML Analysis — HENRICO DOCTORS HOSPITAL
CCN 490118 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health20/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 18.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.7%, 25.9%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 781049.723 | +0.1079 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 962866.564 | -0.0860 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 686.000 | -0.0838 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.531 | +0.0501 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.6%
Distress Risk
$23.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
22.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P98. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.106 | -0.117 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.412 | +0.105 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 686.000 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 962866.564 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.057 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.249 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $23.0M
Current margin: 18.9%
Projected margin: 22.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 11
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.106 | 0.364 | 25.9% | $20.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.412 | 0.839 | 42.8% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.694 | 0.710 | 1.5% | $228K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |