ML Analysis — LEWISGALE HOSPITAL - MONTGOMERY
CCN 490110 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
13.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 40.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-15.0%, 41.6%]. P87 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1004571.815 | +0.0804 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.099 | +0.0296 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.170 | -0.0223 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1692819.880 | +0.0158 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
43.5%
Distress Risk
$6.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
44.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P83. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.170 | -0.089 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.617 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.031 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.389 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 92.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1692819.880 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.4M
Current margin: 40.7%
Projected margin: 44.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.170 | 0.350 | 18.0% | $3.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.580 | 0.714 | 13.4% | $2.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.617 | 0.785 | 16.8% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |