ML Analysis — SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 490090 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-25.6%, 31.0%]. P69 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1314915.238 | +0.0422 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1418047.488 | -0.0225 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 80.000 | +0.0107 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 646522.815 | -0.0075 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
49.1%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
11.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P0. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.456 | +0.064 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.033 | -0.055 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.303 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.387 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1418047.488 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 80.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: 7.3%
Projected margin: 11.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.456 | 0.785 | 33.0% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.580 | 0.712 | 13.2% | $2.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.303 | 0.350 | 4.7% | $625K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |