ML Analysis — DANVILLE REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 490075 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.8%, 31.8%]. P71 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1413660.319 | +0.0300 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.447 | +0.0249 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.206 | -0.0182 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.142 | +0.0170 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
47.3%
Distress Risk
$8.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P31. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.206 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.022 | -0.067 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.471 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 232.000 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.288 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1517560.177 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.2M
Current margin: 6.9%
Projected margin: 9.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 32
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.206 | 0.351 | 14.5% | $6.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.471 | 0.809 | 33.8% | $2.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |