ML Analysis — SENTARA WILLIAMSBURG REGIONAL MEDICA
CCN 490066 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
65
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
4.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.1%, 32.5%]. P72 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.129 | +0.0209 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.256 | -0.0127 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.812 | +0.0102 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.027 | +0.0075 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 57%Turnaround possible (57%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.3%
Distress Risk
$5.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P37. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.646 | -0.112 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.027 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.256 | -0.050 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.468 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 123.000 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1562484.927 | +0.001 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.4M
Current margin: -4.9%
Projected margin: -2.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 50
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.505 | 0.714 | 20.9% | $3.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.256 | 0.314 | 5.8% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.646 | 0.785 | 13.9% | $918K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P32 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |