ML Analysis — BON SECOURS DEPAUL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 490011 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.7%, 21.9%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 667317.667 | -0.1273 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1071442.789 | +0.0722 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.127 | +0.0215 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 268929.020 | -0.0200 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
50.1%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-38.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P51. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.403 | +0.113 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.017 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.221 | -0.066 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 667317.667 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.409 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 57.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -38.1%
Grade: B
Comps: 52
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.403 | 0.761 | 35.8% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.574 | 0.685 | 11.1% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.221 | 0.336 | 11.5% | $511K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |