ML Analysis — COPLEY HOSPITAL INC.
CCN 471305 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.2%, 14.4%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3655196.920 | +0.2898 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3813415.960 | -0.2656 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.266 | -0.1635 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2237581.369 | +0.0453 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.9%
Distress Risk
$4.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P75. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VT distress rate: 86.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3655196.920 | -0.123 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.591 | +0.099 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.612 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.163 | +0.074 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.496 | +0.029 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.4M
Current margin: -4.3%
Projected margin: 0.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 2513
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.341 | 0.632 | 29.1% | $4.4M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |