ML Analysis — NORTHWESTERN MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 470024 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-29.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -35.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-57.7%, -1.1%]. P13 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.266 | -0.1635 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2392938.491 | -0.0906 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1762238.641 | +0.0255 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.296 | -0.0251 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.121 | +0.0233 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 11%Low turnaround probability (11%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
54.4%
Distress Risk
$8.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-27.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P91. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
VT distress rate: 86.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.296 | +0.207 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 53.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.390 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1762238.642 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.385 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.521 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.1M
Current margin: -35.8%
Projected margin: -27.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 1973
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.314 | 0.712 | 39.8% | $6.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.521 | 0.723 | 20.2% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.385 | 0.453 | 6.9% | $753K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P66 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |