ML Analysis — RUTLAND REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 470005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-20.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-49.0%, 7.6%]. P20 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.266 | -0.1635 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2426586.986 | -0.0948 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2150475.803 | +0.0797 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1332191.339 | +0.0152 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.211 | -0.0147 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 19%Low turnaround probability (19%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.3%
Distress Risk
$6.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P73. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
VT distress rate: 86.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.211 | +0.122 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.619 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2150475.803 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.437 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.379 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 142.000 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.0M
Current margin: -12.8%
Projected margin: -10.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 2069
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.411 | 0.757 | 34.6% | $5.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.619 | 0.748 | 12.9% | $851K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |