ML Analysis — CENTRAL VERMONT HOSPITAL
CCN 470001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-39.7%, 16.9%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3079329.125 | +0.2094 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3160500.704 | -0.1852 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.266 | -0.1635 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2140961.713 | +0.0421 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.099 | +0.0295 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 31%Turnaround possible (31%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
48.9%
Distress Risk
$8.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P91. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
VT distress rate: 86.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.695 | -0.158 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.229 | +0.140 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3079329.125 | -0.089 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.493 | +0.055 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.570 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 88.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.5M
Current margin: -2.6%
Projected margin: 0.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 2164
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.201 | 0.746 | 54.6% | $8.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.695 | 0.739 | 4.3% | $285K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P33 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |