ML Analysis — SALT LAKE CITY BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 464013 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.0%, 27.6%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 222516.356 | -0.1894 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 216163.288 | +0.1775 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.401 | -0.0573 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 125279.757 | -0.0248 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$127K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
3.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.563 | -0.035 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.136 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 222516.356 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.464 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 118.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $127K
Current margin: 2.9%
Projected margin: 3.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.563 | 0.582 | 1.9% | $127K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |