ML Analysis — MARIAN CENTER
CCN 464012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.4%, 29.2%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 301130.500 | -0.1784 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 266631.167 | +0.1713 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.485 | -0.0439 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.320 | -0.0342 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
40.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.812 | -0.266 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.366 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 301130.500 | +0.075 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.505 | +0.061 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 12.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.0M
Current margin: 11.5%
Projected margin: 40.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 13
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.634 | 0.700 | 6.6% | $994K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.505 | 0.606 | 10.1% | $43K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |