ML Analysis — CACHE VALLEY HOSPITAL
CCN 460054 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position19/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.7%, 23.9%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1238807.071 | -0.0475 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1392785.643 | +0.0326 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.332 | -0.0242 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 184608.921 | -0.0228 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
55.0%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-3.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P68. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.149 | +0.349 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.233 | -0.061 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.104 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.061 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1238807.071 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 28.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: -12.4%
Projected margin: -3.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 28
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.233 | 0.648 | 41.5% | $1.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.149 | 0.390 | 24.1% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P72 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |