ML Analysis — OGDEN REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 460005 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
16.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 47.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-11.7%, 44.9%]. P90 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 905375.937 | +0.0926 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1720274.770 | +0.0197 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.159 | +0.0182 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.217 | -0.0170 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$7.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
50.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.217 | -0.068 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.153 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1720274.770 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.543 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 174.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.8M
Current margin: 47.4%
Projected margin: 50.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.217 | 0.420 | 20.3% | $7.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.543 | 0.652 | 10.8% | $715K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |