ML Analysis — OCEANS BEHAVIORAL HOSPITAL WACO
CCN 454150 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 8.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.7%, 24.9%]. P53 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 260927.292 | -0.1840 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 239569.250 | +0.1746 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.295 | -0.0269 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 207997.178 | -0.0221 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
21.1%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.797 | -0.252 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.357 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 260927.292 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.458 | +0.040 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: 8.2%
Projected margin: 21.1%
Grade: B
Comps: 280
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.643 | 0.746 | 10.2% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.458 | 0.511 | 5.3% | $77K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |