ML Analysis — WELLBRIDGE HEALTHCARE GREATER DALLAS
CCN 454130 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -44.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.9%, 21.7%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 164393.021 | -0.1975 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 237837.062 | +0.1749 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 107043.127 | -0.0254 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 48.000 | +0.0157 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
45.4%
Distress Risk
$957K
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-32.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P66. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.651 | -0.117 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.000 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 164393.021 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 48.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.341 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.276 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $957K
Current margin: -44.7%
Projected margin: -32.6%
Grade: B
Comps: 280
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.651 | 0.722 | 7.1% | $469K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.724 | 0.746 | 2.2% | $331K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.341 | 0.511 | 17.0% | $157K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |