ML Analysis — MILLWOOD HOSPITAL
CCN 454012 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.6%, 24.0%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 214135.925 | -0.1906 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 178896.948 | +0.1821 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.305 | -0.0297 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 157044.687 | -0.0238 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
42.9%
Distress Risk
$163K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
17.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P77. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.733 | -0.193 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 214135.925 | +0.081 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.077 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.331 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 134.000 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $163K
Current margin: 16.5%
Projected margin: 17.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 172
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.733 | 0.752 | 1.9% | $125K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.331 | 0.343 | 1.1% | $38K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |