ML Analysis — COVENANT SPECIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 452102 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
34
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.6%, 22.0%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 266892.732 | -0.1832 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 240261.946 | +0.1746 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.030 | +0.0494 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.123 | -0.0275 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$11.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
87.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.287 | +0.221 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.757 | +0.074 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.123 | -0.109 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 266892.732 | +0.077 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $11.6M
Current margin: 10.0%
Projected margin: 87.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 230
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.243 | 0.771 | 52.8% | $7.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.287 | 0.740 | 45.2% | $3.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.123 | 0.509 | 38.6% | $675K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |