ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL SAN ANTONIO CENTRAL
CCN 452073 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -10.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.4%, 23.2%]. P49 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 390055.909 | -0.1660 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 431064.204 | +0.1510 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.101 | +0.0289 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.178 | -0.0214 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 41%Turnaround possible (41%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
13.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.178 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.587 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.433 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 390055.909 | +0.070 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 44.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.0M
Current margin: -10.5%
Projected margin: 13.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 278
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.567 | 0.735 | 16.9% | $2.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.587 | 0.714 | 12.7% | $839K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.178 | 0.509 | 33.1% | $665K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |