ML Analysis — NEXUS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL
CCN 452057 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.5%, 25.1%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 624940.676 | -0.1332 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 664987.946 | +0.1222 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.611 | -0.0177 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 37.000 | +0.0174 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-1.0%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.773 | -0.230 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.309 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 624940.676 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.269 | -0.044 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 37.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.2M
Current margin: -6.4%
Projected margin: -1.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 278
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.691 | 0.732 | 4.2% | $625K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.269 | 0.499 | 23.1% | $624K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |