ML Analysis — CORNERSTONE SPECIALTY AUSTIN
CCN 452034 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.2%, 24.4%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 376190.372 | -0.1679 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 331996.752 | +0.1633 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 179498.072 | -0.0230 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.124 | +0.0222 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
21.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.189 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.477 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.340 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 376190.372 | +0.071 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 145.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.2M
Current margin: 11.8%
Projected margin: 21.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 165
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.660 | 0.833 | 17.3% | $2.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.477 | 0.749 | 27.2% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.189 | 0.324 | 13.5% | $861K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |