ML Analysis — KINDRED HOSPITAL HOUSTON
CCN 452023 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
36
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.0%, 24.6%]. P53 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 557674.959 | -0.1426 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 562738.247 | +0.1348 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.176 | -0.0216 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.131 | +0.0204 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
6.7%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.176 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.258 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 557674.959 | +0.060 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.535 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 97.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: -0.9%
Projected margin: 6.7%
Grade: C
Comps: 190
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.742 | 0.839 | 9.7% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.535 | 0.751 | 21.6% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.176 | 0.374 | 19.8% | $1.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |