ML Analysis — PRESBYTERIAN PLANO CENTER DIAG SRVCS
CCN 450891 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position2/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency15/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
10.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 28.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-17.9%, 38.7%]. P83 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4550344.167 | +0.4147 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3260193.278 | -0.1975 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.350 | -0.0426 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi |
nan%
Distress Risk
$4.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
33.2%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.094 | +0.400 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.157 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4550344.167 | -0.175 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.415 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.0M
Current margin: 28.3%
Projected margin: 33.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 189
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.094 | 0.488 | 39.4% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.415 | 0.556 | 14.1% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |