ML Analysis — BAYLOR S&W MEDICAL CENTER - PLANO
CCN 450890 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health14/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.3%, 29.3%]. P65 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Expense/Bed | 1455287.244 | +0.0249 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.075 | +0.0163 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.009 | +0.0096 | Higher Medicaid % increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1515625.775 | -0.0089 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.1%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P13. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.010 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.571 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.304 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.425 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1515625.775 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 160.000 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: 4.0%
Projected margin: 6.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 164
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.566 | 0.828 | 26.2% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.571 | 0.739 | 16.9% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.304 | 0.313 | 0.9% | $270K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |